Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

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pterribilis
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Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by pterribilis » Sun Dec 18, 2011 10:43 am

So what IF Ninjago is currently the "hottest theme" that Lego has around at the moment. For me, there isn't much appeal. I have over 180 sets now totally around 75,000 pieces and NOT one set from Ninjago.

Am I foolish or will this set be a hot item in the future? Here are my thoughts/opinions:

Ninjago < City - City will always have some sort of appeal to everyone and have a collectors value as some sets like the Modular buildings (yes they are Creator but they go with the same genre), buildings, and minifigs will always be sought after to put that "Ideal Metropolis/Town" together.

Ninjago < Star Wars - Not much explanation needed here.

Ninjago < Harry Potter - Appeals to those that love Harry Potter as well as those who would also be purchasing Castles/Kingdoms sets

Ninjago < Castle/Kingdoms - How many times have you seen in a movie/cartoon/etc where there are hundreds/thousands of Ninjas attacking each other? Just doesn't appeal at the grand level. No one is going to be like "ya, I gotta purchase another 100 Ninjago figures to make my army bigger than yours"

I grew up playing with Castle/Space/Starwars/City sets and although my father made me give them away when we moved overseas, I think the sets that I miss the most are star wars and castle. I would almost be included to pay the extra $$$ to have them back...got close a few times but bought newer sets in the same themes instead. The point I'm trying to make is...who is going to remember Ninjago 10 years from now and remember the character names/positions/etc?

Ah well, if I ever do get a Ninjago set it will be whatever the most expensive one is..nothing more.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by SpaceViking » Sun Dec 18, 2011 3:45 pm

I tend to agree with the above. My kids and their cousins love the theme, but I dont see a big draw long term from AFOL's, in contrast to the City/Star Wars/Castle themes like you mention above.

TLG seemed to score a hit here with the spinners, however. At least that's the draw with my kids. $10-$12 for a fig and a few bricks is a bit too expensive for me, but they seem to sell well at that price.

But, what do I know? I thought Toy Story would be much more popular than it is :-/

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by pterribilis » Mon Dec 19, 2011 11:48 am

SH1 wrote:But, what do I know? I thought Toy Story would be much more popular than it is :-/
I think Toy Story was too "kid focused." Def not for AFOLs. I have only purchased one set just to get the Minifigs. I think that is what will sell in the future.

I tend to look at set value (when it contains Minifigs) as an equation where Set Cost = A, Pieces of Set = B, # of Minifigures = C, Price Per Minifigure = D


(A / B) - (C * D) = X

if(X =< 0) then its a good investment

Lets give an example: The Death Star
A B C D X
399 3803 24 3.5 -83.89508283

Of course there are exceptions and if you see that I only put D as the cost of a basic minifigure purchased from TRU...

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by dr_spock » Mon Dec 19, 2011 6:35 pm

It may become a hot nostalgic item when the kids of today come out of their Dark Ages decades from now. Future is always foggy.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by vynsane » Tue Dec 20, 2011 8:18 am

I always find it funny when people complain that a toy is "too kid focused".

The basic rule of 'investing' in toys is that whatever is really popular now will have a resurgence in 20 or so years when the kids that grew up with that item get nostalgic and want to reacquire everything they can, and have the disposable income to do so. This may have been merely a staple of the 70's, 80's and 90's, though, as more recent generations seem to not care as much about ownership and collecting things - more apt to rent an apartment than own a house, more apt to use zipcar as opposed to a monthly car payment, etc.

So, if you have the disposable income to buy up a bunch of Ninjago products and hold on to them for 20 or so years, you might have something of a windfall at that time.

Conversely, if you wanted to part them out on Bricklink, there are a SLEW of new parts in next year's lineup, so that could be a wise course of action.
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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by sadowsk1 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 9:03 am

dr_spock wrote:It may become a hot nostalgic item when the kids of today come out of their Dark Ages decades from now. Future is always foggy.
I agree. I think that once kids get older and have disposable income they will be interested in these sets for nostalgic value and for their own kids, but I don't see much of a return in the next couple decades. Maybe it will pick up though if a cartoon catches on and becomes popular on a more obvious scale.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by meyerc13 » Tue Dec 20, 2011 11:35 am

Beyond popularity and prevalence, I think the value in a set is going to be linked to two things - the minifigs and the uniqueness of the pieces. For minifigs, licensed are probably more valuable overall. If you kid was into Batman a year ago, your only recourse was buying a used Batman minifig. Now that LEGO re-released Batman, will the figures retain their value? Maybe not. Same with Jabba who is coming out again next year (maybe I should sell mine now and make a quick buck).

LEGO being what it is, any set can be recreated if you have the parts. So if a set has unique parts, those parts will usually go up in value once a line disappears. I know Ninjago has some unique parts like the printed Windows in some of the large sets, so I suspect those might be valuable some day (especially if lots of AFOLs want to MOC Asian restaurants for their LEGO cities).

It's hard to say for certain what will happen, because the one thing we probably won't know is how many of each set LEGO made. If sets had low production runs, eventually there won't be as many in the market. Ninjago seems popular, so I suspect production runs are high, which means value may be lower (but then again, since it is popular, will kids be more nostalgic for it in 20 years). Predicting the future sure is hard, isn't it?

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by ricefields » Sun Jan 01, 2012 3:17 pm

pterribilis wrote:So what IF Ninjago is currently the "hottest theme" that Lego has around at the moment. For me, there isn't much appeal. I have over 180 sets now totally around 75,000 pieces and NOT one set from Ninjago.

Am I foolish or will this set be a hot item in the future? Here are my thoughts/opinions:

Ah well, if I ever do get a Ninjago set it will be whatever the most expensive one is..nothing more.
Investment does not need to mean 5-10 years from now - it is a great investment now if you ar able to buy and sell with a short turn around! so hottest theme of the year = great short term investment
I think the hottest set was the lightning dragon because it was a tru and lego.com exclusive, not the largest set: fire temple. On ebay the dragon is not that a great seller now after the holidays but it was before christmas (I made about 50% profit when I sold two before christmas). The new 2012 line is also exciting and when it comes to this theme I think the rich parents will fork out money for their kids on the older 2011 sets and the new 2012 sets come same time next year. Some of the 2012 sets are already sold out on TRU shelves in the states. And of course we already know most 2011 sets have been sold out everywhere in canada online and instore.

as for long term investment I don't think this would be on my priority list (hence all ninjago sets have been opened and played with by my son), but anything can happen - think mars mission, dino attack, space police max transport which I was suprised to benefit from thinking these had low investment opportunities.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by Kodiak10 » Sun Jan 01, 2012 8:05 pm

I think the 4 Dragon Sets will have investment value. Ice Earth Fire and Lighting. If I'm not mistaken, Earth Fire and Lighting are Sept releases with Earth already being discontinued and Lighting and Fire to follow. I think Lego is trying to get as many sets( to try to appeal to kids etc..) out being that this is there own License, hence the shortprint of the Sept releases(red boxes). This may change next year as they may hang on to some of the Green boxes. My prediction is that Blue Boxes will be next years color.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by SpaceNinjaDino » Fri Jan 06, 2012 5:14 pm

To me, these sets do not have the appeal of the original Ninja sets and I only marginally liked those at the time. I try to imagine if I was a kid right now, what I'd like in LEGO. But I'm wrong with these things when it comes to monetary return. I really disliked Power Miners mostly because of the gross colors, but they already sell better than I would have guessed.

My first rule is that I either have to at least like the set myself for me to invest in it. So worst case scenario, I can build the set for myself. :) Second rule is if I can get for 50%+ off, and I don't hate it, then it's worth the risk. Sets normally don't drop below MSRP after discontinuation.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by nkx1 » Fri Jan 06, 2012 6:28 pm

I only recently came out of my dark ages. I've bought quite a bit of Lego within the past couple of months, but no Ninjago (for myself anyway; bought 1 skull truck at 50% off for investment) because it simply doesn't appeal to me as an AFOL. I agree with most that it is more of a kid-focused theme.

Taking into consideration the foregoing, I find the Destiny's Bounty 9446 set quite cool. Lego pirate ships (BP, QAR and new IF) sort of lured me back into Lego, and 9446 somehow seems to fit roughly into a great ship theme (at least imo).

Therefore, I can see 9446 being worth something in the future because I think it may have a broader appeal than other Ninjago sets. And it's just a cool set. It's hard to quantify the coolness factor. That's about the only Ninjago set I would gamble on, though. I'm still waiting for a sale to pick up a 9446 for myself.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by pdaaat » Wed Jan 11, 2012 10:25 pm

My 4 yr old likes it so we have it. I like it too but the problem with many of the sets is that they focus too much on the figs and often there is not enough "meat" in the rest of the set.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by Kodiak10 » Thu Feb 16, 2012 9:08 pm

Have anyone noticed that some of the 2011 Sets that are discontinued are starting to increase in value including Dragon Sets and Original Ninjago Spinners Kai and Zane? Even the newly released spinner Kai ZX is almost impossible to find. On Brickipedia it even states so. I'm to old to be watching cartoons but I happen to see one a few weeks back with my girls and it was really well done; like the old days of cartoons. I think these are going to gain steam as the year comes....... anyone see that 4 headed dragon being released later this year?

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by UnknownUser » Thu Feb 16, 2012 10:37 pm

Kodiak10 wrote:Even the newly released spinner Kai ZX is almost impossible to find. On Brickipedia it even states so.
That's because only TRU had them first for now. Nobody else has them yet....

I think you're referring to Kendo Zane, which apparently sold out within an month and already EOL'd.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by sadowsk1 » Fri Feb 17, 2012 8:54 am

I know I chimed in on this discussion once before but it really does seem to be more popular than I believed initially especially after seeing so many new themes come and go lately. I did break down and buy a couple sensei wu's. I had to have that hat, reminded me of Big Trouble in Little China.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by Kodiak10 » Fri Feb 17, 2012 2:43 pm

I've seen one at a local Meijers a few days ago and they are also on Amazon's top 100 list for toys. With that being said, I think that it's going to be gone fast.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by zak001 » Fri Feb 17, 2012 10:40 pm

Around the Inland Empire in CA most places I've visited have been cleaned out of spinners. Maybe a few of the 9564 Snappas, otherwise it's just empty pegs at TRU, Walmart, Target. Plenty of the larger boxed sets but either the spinners are going gangbusters thanks to the series, or retailers got gun-shy from being stuck with too many last year.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by greanie2011 » Sat Feb 18, 2012 7:26 pm

Just an observation,
I am not a fan of the Ninjago sets, but i am not opposed to the sets either (i dont own any!).
But what i have seen is the set going on sale/clearance at the local Box stores maybe because the sets are not selling or maybe they just need to clean out and get new sets in.
Either way, reading this thread makes me curious of the kits "Unique" parts and not necessarily the story of the line.
Great thread, If you are reading this thread please post a thought one way or the other im sure alot of AFOL have some great thoughts on this topic.

Quote from a fellow AFOL in a toy store LEGO aisle
"These kids are always in the way looking at these ninjagos...never had trouble looking for sets before these ninjagos came out"

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by UnknownUser » Tue Feb 21, 2012 1:37 pm

This year Ninjago seems to be selling very well. At my TRU they didn't have much of the boxed sets left (except the snake cranes and a few tread assaults) and just restocked on the spinner sets.

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Re: Ninjago or Ninjano - Investors Discussion

Post by Kodiak10 » Tue Feb 21, 2012 6:18 pm

I must say, I'm very intrigued by Ninjago for some reason. Why don't they have all the spinners on the shop at home? I picked up a few lighting dragons yesterday as they were to good to pass up at TRU. I wish they lower the price on the fire temple, 131.99 is a bit much.

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