Yay or Nay

[pterribilis]

Okay investors, I have been off of my "crack" for a few months now (yes, lego is like a drug once I start collecting I get addicted and can't stop myself unless I just go off of it cold turkey). Anyway....I just HAD to have a browse of the lego site and noticed there are a few things that MIGHT be of interest to me and wanted some advice / opinions with regards to investment/collection. Pretty much say "yay" or "nay" in terms of what YOU think will end up being collectable later down the road:

Haunted House 10228 - My guess is "nay" I'm sceptical as it's not really in the "city theme" as many of the other modulars are and might not really "blend" with things like the fire brigade, green grocer, pet shop, etc.
R2-D2 10225 - maybe "yay" but I'm surprised on how the price of the Death Star hasn't really changed much...maybe not as iconic as 10179? Maybe?
Seaside House 7346 - These are hit and miss for me, but the price isn't much of a risk
Battle of Helms Deep 9474 - again, not so sure about the theme and there isn't "much" to the set just by looking at it online.

Would love to see others comments.

[SpaceViking]

Haunted House 10228 - My guess is "nay" I'm sceptical as it's not really in the "city theme" as many of the other modulars are and might not really "blend" with things like the fire brigade, green grocer, pet shop, etc.

I'm on the fence about this one. I'm sure we'll get it to build, as its got a lot of charm. I'm torn as to the long-term appeal however. I expect in 5-10 years, it will be considered a classic, but 1-2 years out I think its hard to say.

R2-D2 10225 - maybe "yay" but I'm surprised on how the price of the Death Star hasn't really changed much...maybe not as iconic as 10179? Maybe?

the 10179 is a tough yard stick to measure by. 10179 was sold poorly when it was in stock, and only got strong in the after-market. I think this was due partly because it disappeared a bit earlier than expected. I do think the R2-D2 will be classic, along the lines of the other SW sculptures (e.g. Yoda). Who doesnt like R2?

Seaside House 7346 - These are hit and miss for me, but the price isn't much of a risk

I really like this one, as it goes well with the Marina theme. I'm confident it will be available at a discount, though---TRU BOGO50 or a good Target or Kmart sale next winter. No hurry here.

Battle of Helms Deep 9474 - again, not so sure about the theme and there isn't "much" to the set just by looking at it online.

Tough to say. I suspect that the LotR series will mimic the PotC line: lots of excitement to start, followed by waning interest after a year. Again, I don't see any hurry on this one. But, its also one where if I miss it, I wont be too upset.

Disclaimer: I'm just an AFOL, not a professional. I think it would be hard to go wrong with any of these, at a good "buy" price.

[Kodiak10]

Haunted House 10228 - My guess is "nay" I'm sceptical as it's not really in the "city theme" as many of the other modulars are and might not really "blend" with things like the fire brigade, green grocer, pet shop, etc.
Would love to see others comments.

I think this is the Biggest Winner of the Year if they don't produce it past like April of 2013. In the scheme of the City Theme, its the House all the way down the street on the top of the Hill. I think its works out perfectly. IMO.

[ShaydDeGrai]

I'm no professional when it comes to this stuff, but the first rule of collecting for me has always been to bet on the things that _I_ like (just like I prefer to buy stocks in companies whose products I actually _use_) Sometimes I miss the boat (Bioicles did nothing for me but I can't deny that they've appreciated well) but usually it's a good litmus test (the Holiday Train 10173, VW Beetle 10187, and modular buildings were all good picks that just 'felt' right if you think about them as a set first and an investment second).

By that standard, I get a good vibe from the Haunted House 10228, of the kits you listed, I think it has the best shot at appreciating quickly once it reaches End of Life (assuming, of course that it finds something of an audience during its lifetime).

I really don't know what to make of the LOTR sets. On one hand, LOTR has a rabid fan base and there's been a stable market for LOTR collectables for decades so you'd think they'd be sure bets. On the other hand, I've been disappointed with the offerings to date. I think the minifigures will do well on their own (and small kits that have a good price/figure ratio may benefit from that) but I just don't know about big sets like Helm's Deep.

TLG has yet to release anything like a UCS LOTR kit that would be worth collecting even _without_ minifigures and (unfortunately) I think this is where the real potential for investing in high end LOTR themed kits might lie, something more sculpture-like, like the Argonath, or complete models of Orthanc, Minas Tirith, Barad Dur, Minas Morgul, etc. In essence, I think you need something that offers a real building experience for AFOLs as well as high display-piece value for non-Lego LOTR fans. I could certainly be dead wrong, but I just don't think TLG has hit that particular nail on the head with its LOTR offerings to date.

[Brickmythic]

I say yay to all 3. But there is definitely more potential in Haunted House and Helms Deep.

Most AFOL's and investors are weary of POTC, Harry Potter, and LOTR.

That means its a big sign to invest if you want to take a calculated gamble.

Many investors are going for sure bets such as Fire Brigade and Market Village which will definitely go up in value while avoiding sets like Diagon Alley and Hogwarts Castle.

What this means is that I don't think investors are hording as much HP,POTC, and LOTR as they could potentially. This will drive prices of sets like Black Pearl,Helm's Deep, Hogwarts Castle and Diagon Alley through the roof over the next several years.

With Star Wars lego such as R2-D2, its always tough to tell. If it goes on sale at 20% or more, yes its a good investment. Its just going to take a while for it to move up unless its suddenly pulled from production.

The Haunted House is awesome


I think all the sets you mention have strong potential and like you said, 'feel right'

Helms Deep being the biggest sleeper hit since Haunted House and R2 will be invested in heavily. Also Helms Deep will likely be the first EOL'd.

You really cant go wrong with the 3 sets you picked!

[cstojano]

Did you say Bionicle has appreciated as well?

[marcusloignon]

Did you say Bionicle has appreciated as well?

I don't see that at all. I need some good examples. Bionical (nay)

I would say the haunted house, (yay), but I beleive it depends on several factors, one being the life of the set. If this set is available for say 5 years, all bets are off and the market will be flooded. I think the Fire Brigade is the same way. That set has been out since 2009 and the market is saturated and the price is currently 15-20% discounted. It will go up in value, but it will take years to go through the inventory....supply and demand drives price you know. The standard 2 year or less retail cycle sets are the best bet.

[CreatorCrazed]

I think this is the Biggest Winner of the Year if they don't produce it past like April of 2013. In the scheme of the City Theme, its the House all the way down the street on the top of the Hill. I think its works out perfectly. IMO.

That is exactly where mine is going! How did you know?